A US decision affecting the employment-based green-card process at eight large technology companies has created an obvious problem for Indian professionals hoping to settle there. Zerodha’s Dinesh Pai, however, sees another possible outcome: more of the work itself may eventually move to India.
The US has suspended TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Cognizant, Capgemini, Microsoft and Adobe from the Permanent Labor Certification programme, better known as PERM. For these employers, new applications will not be accepted and pending ones will not be processed while the suspension remains in place.
Pai’s argument is fairly straightforward. If companies find it harder to move skilled workers to the US, they may have a stronger reason to expand teams where that talent already exists.
For India, that could mean more Global Capability Centres, larger engineering teams and, potentially, more experienced people choosing to build companies at home.
This Is Not a Blanket Green Card Ban
The first point worth clearing up is what the US action actually does.
PERM is one of the early steps used by employers sponsoring workers for many employment-based green cards. Companies generally have to establish that qualified US workers are not available for a particular role before moving further with the sponsorship process.
The latest action freezes that process for the eight named companies.
It does not cancel green cards that have already been issued. Existing H-1B visas are not automatically cancelled either.
That distinction matters because describing the move simply as a US green card suspension can make its immediate effect sound broader than it is.
For employees whose PERM applications were about to be filed, or are currently pending with one of the affected companies, however, the disruption is very real. No end date has been announced.
Dinesh Pai Sees Work Moving Instead of Workers
Pai, who works with Zerodha and leads investments through Rainmatter, looked at the issue from the other side of the hiring equation.
US technology companies still need engineers.
If bringing those people physically into the country becomes harder, the need for the work itself does not disappear.
One alternative is to build or expand teams elsewhere.
India is an obvious candidate because many global companies already employ large technology teams here, and multinational firms have spent years building engineering, finance, analytics and product organisations across cities such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune, Mumbai and Gurugram.
That is the logic behind Pai’s view that GCC growth in India could get another push.
Companies may simply decide that if a job can no longer move easily to the employee, more of the job can move to the employee instead.
India Already Has More Than 2,100 GCCs
This would not be starting from scratch.
India already hosts more than 2,100 Global Capability Centres employing roughly 2.4 million people.
The nature of those centres has changed considerably.
Many began as back-office or support operations. Today, multinational companies use Indian GCCs for software engineering, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, finance, product development, research and other specialised work.
That change is important.
If US companies respond to tighter immigration pathways by adding more roles in India, they would be expanding an operating model that is already well established rather than experimenting with something new.
For an experienced engineer, that can also reduce the gap between working for a global technology company in India and taking the traditional route of relocating abroad.
Indian IT Services Firms Could See a Mixed Impact
For companies such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro, the situation is not entirely positive.
They are among the firms directly affected by the PERM suspension, which creates uncertainty for employees in the US who were depending on employer-sponsored permanent residency.
Those companies also need to compete for workers who may consider immigration prospects when choosing where to build their careers.
At the same time, a larger shift towards offshore delivery could play to one of their oldest strengths.
Indian IT services companies have spent decades building teams that serve global clients from India.
If American companies become more willing to leave highly skilled work offshore rather than move employees onsite, that could create additional opportunities for the Indian IT industry.
The outcome will depend on how companies respond rather than on the policy action alone.
TCS Says the Immediate Business Effect Should Be Limited
TCS has already indicated that it does not expect the suspension to materially alter its workforce strategy.
The company said its PERM filings were in single digits over the past two years.
That suggests the direct numerical impact on TCS may be relatively small compared with the size of its US workforce.
The company also plans to hire another 15,000 people in the United States over the next five years.
That point is important because Indian IT companies have increasingly relied on local hiring in overseas markets rather than depending entirely on employees transferred from India.
The new restriction may accelerate that shift further.
Companies could end up with a combination of more US citizens and permanent residents hired locally, alongside larger delivery teams operating from India.
India Could Keep More Experienced Engineers
Pai’s second argument is about people rather than outsourcing.
For years, some of India’s strongest engineering talent has eventually moved abroad for higher salaries, bigger technology roles or the prospect of settling permanently in countries such as the US.
A less predictable immigration path changes that calculation.
Some professionals may still leave. Others may choose to remain in India if the difference in career opportunities continues narrowing.
That could matter for Indian AI startups in particular.
Artificial-intelligence companies need experienced engineers, researchers and product leaders at a time when competition for that talent is intense.
The Bigger Question Is Where Global Tech Work Gets Done
The immediate story is about employees whose green-card plans have been interrupted.
The longer-term business question may be broader.
Technology companies have already shown they are comfortable running large engineering organisations outside their headquarters. Remote work, cloud infrastructure and global development teams have made location less rigid than it once was.
That makes Pai’s argument plausible even if the scale remains impossible to predict.
A tighter immigration path does not remove the demand for software engineers. It changes where companies may choose to employ them.
For TCS, Infosys and Wipro, the PERM freeze creates uncertainty in the US. For India’s GCC and startup ecosystem, it may create a different kind of opportunity.
Whether that opportunity becomes meaningful will depend on one thing more than anything else: when companies realise they cannot move enough people to the work, how much of the work are they willing to move to the people?
