Equity benchmarks recovered some sharp losses in mid-morning trade on Monday, with value buying offering partial relief after a steep open. At 11:25 IST, the Sensex was down 386.82 points or 0.52% at 74,840.44, while the Nifty 50 slipped 135.80 points or 0.58% to 23,510.65. The broader market bore the brunt — the BSE 150 MidCap Index tumbled 1.23% and the BSE 250 SmallCap Index dropped 2.17%, with market breadth heavily negative at 882 advances against 3,138 declines.
The rupee touched a fresh all-time intraday low of 96.3350 against the dollar, while Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel as Trump’s latest warning to Iran — posted on Truth Social on Sunday, saying the clock was ticking and there “won’t be anything left” if action was not taken soon — stoked fresh fears of Strait of Hormuz disruption. On Wall Street Friday, the S&P 500 shed 1.24% and the Dow fell over 537 points as a Trump-Xi summit ended without policy breakthroughs.
Markets under pressure as geopolitics bite
SAIL: Buy at Rs 192, target Rs 240
It is against this volatile backdrop that ICICI Direct dropped a buy on SAIL this morning at Rs 192, with a target of Rs 240 — 25% upside. The call follows a strong set of Q4FY26 numbers declared on May 15. Standalone net profit rose 43% year-on-year to Rs 1,680 crore, with a sharper sequential jump of 280% from Rs 442 crore in Q3FY26. Revenue grew 5% YoY and 13% QoQ to Rs 30,813 crore. For the full year, PAT soared 50.5%, debt was cut by Rs 8,148 crore, and the board recommended a final dividend of Rs 2.35 per share. The 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports — shielding domestic realisations from Chinese competition — remains the single biggest policy variable underpinning the thesis. SAIL trades at a discount to private peers on PE, reflecting its PSU structure and weaker return ratios, but the post-results entry point is cleaner than it has been in some time.
Tata Steel: Buy at Rs 217, target Rs 270
Tata Steel gets the same sector call from ICICI Direct, recommended at Rs 217 with a target of Rs 270. The back-to-back steel recommendations on the same day signal a deliberate sectoral bet rather than stock-specific opportunism. Tata Steel carries stronger return ratios than SAIL and a longer-term technology story — the company recently announced the world’s first EASyMelt low-carbon smelting project at its Jamshedpur works in partnership with Luxembourg’s Paul Wurth. The West Asia conflict creates near-term logistics headwinds, but ICICI Direct’s Market Wrap from May 15 flagged auto and capital goods demand as durable, both of which feed steel consumption. At current levels, the 24% upside to the target makes this a more comfortable risk-reward than the broader market is currently offering.
Allied Blenders and Distillers: Buy at Rs 555, target Rs 690
The third name in today’s batch sits outside the metals theme entirely. ICICI Direct has initiated a buy on Allied Blenders and Distillers — the maker of Officer’s Choice and Sterling Reserve whisky — at Rs 555 with a target of Rs 690, implying 24% upside. The stock has delivered flat returns over the past year despite swinging sharply within its 52-week range of Rs 376 to Rs 697, which reflects both volatility and unresolved investor conviction. As a consumer discretionary play, it is insulated from the crude geopolitics nexus dragging metals and energy names today. The earnings trajectory and brand-led volume growth will be the real test; the entry case rests on valuation rather than near-term momentum.
