The collapse of ten Adani firms, which has already wiped off more than $130 billion from their total market value, may prove to be a temporary stumbling point in India’s economic narrative.
Investors in Indian markets are increasingly looking past the Adani Group’s problems. Local money managers are optimistic about the next year, and outside investors are beginning to re-enter the $3.1 trillion equities market.
After falling for a second month in January due to a scathing report on billionaire Gautam Adani‘s business by US short seller Hindenburg Research, a major share benchmark is surging again towards an all-time high. According to a Bloomberg News survey, fund managers expect India’s main equity indices to conclude the year higher than they are now, as robust domestic demand increases corporate profitability.
“There is Gautam Adani issue, and there is the Indian market: they are separate,” said Rakhi Prasad, an investment manager at Alder Capital in Mumbai. The Adani selloff isn’t an India issue because the governance standards of many Indian companies are on par with global ones, while similar problems can be found in many other countries, she said.
The collapse of ten Adani enterprises, which has already wiped off more than $130 billion from their total market value, may wind up being a minor stumbling bump in India’s economic story, as the government aims for the world’s fastest growth among major countries. Moreover, the scrutiny that the nation’s corporate governance landscape has undergone since the Hindenburg report may turn out to be a long-term good rather than its own “Lehman moment,” according to others.
“I’ve become more optimistic, “Mobius Capital Partners co-founder and seasoned emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius remarked. “India now has attracted international attention and investors will realise that the Adani case is an aberration.”
Mobius stated that he is interested in investing in technology, infrastructure, and healthcare stocks. Late last month, he told Bloomberg that he intends to put more money into India because the “long-term future of the market is great,” and that the investor retreat caused by the Hindenburg report is “an Adani problem.”
On January 24, Hindenburg issued a study accusing the Adani group of share manipulation and fraud, which the conglomerate has frequently denied.
Notwithstanding the Adani story, 16 of 22 local fund managers polled by Bloomberg News this month indicated they were remained positive on Indian stocks. Just two were bearish, while the remaining four were neutral. Seventeen projected that the S&P BSE Sensex Index and NSE Nifty 50 would end the year higher than they are now, and that the Adani repercussions would not harm Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pro-growth political agenda.
Foreign investors appear to be less anxious than they were in the early days of the Adani meltdown. According to the most recent exchange data published by Bloomberg, foreign investors increased their holdings of Indian equities for six consecutive sessions through Thursday, the longest stretch since November.
While the Adani group has dominated the headlines in recent weeks, the conglomerate’s several companies ranging from ports to power barely account for a fragment of the Indian economy.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence projections, the group’s cumulative capital spending over the next two years would be at most $12 billion, even if it manages to sustain previous fiscal year’s levels despite its wide-ranging problems. This is just approximately 0.3% of India’s $3.47 trillion economy’s potential gross domestic product.