Source: The Economic Times
Quant Mutual Fund expects gold to shed 12–15% off its current value, it maintains long-term up-trend prospects; describes crude oil, stocks, Bitcoin, and currency moves. Despite the glorious rally of gold during the preceding months, it disclosed cautiously that the precious metal within its outlook has probably reached its peak and would be setting itself for some kind of correction within the range of 12-15% in terms of dollars in the near term. In the latest monthly market note, the fund house observed that May was usually the month with a positive rub-off for gold; however, a combination of historical seasonality with macro signals suggested a likely consolidation period ahead.
“However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals,” according to the monthly release by Quant Mutual Fund.
Crude Oil, Bitcoin:
Quant’s Mutual Fund outlook is that the downside on NYMEX crude has mostly played out. Meanwhile, May is usually a bullish month for oil, so any upside could count for something, especially if the current marginal risk-on sentiment in emerging markets is strengthened.
Despite historical trends—where Bitcoin typically shows bearish tendencies in May—current data supports a bullish view. Notably, Quant’s analytics provide an unexpected twist: they indicate a bullish outlook, particularly in light of rising global uncertainties.
“Though for Bitcoin, the month of May is generally flat to bearish but our analytical tools are endorsing a bullish outlook with current global uncertainties, it would be an ideal investment for high-risk appetite global investors,” the release says.
Equity Outlook: Short Term Retreat, Broad-Minded Approach in the Middle Term.
According to the fund house, global inflows into the U.S. equity market reached a peak in January 2025. Since then, inflows have continuously reduced from global investors into U.S. stocks, particularly into technology stocks.
“Therefore, an important high is in place in US equity and the Nasdaq in particular. Although a near-term pullback is probable, the medium-term trend is still weak and the next few months will be quite challenging for global equity and U.S. equity in particular,” the release said.
Despite this, Quant does not view the ongoing correction as a bear market, stating: “For a deep bear market hypothesis, we require tighter global liquidity and currently global liquidity remains relatively quite strong,”
Strategic Portfolio Adjustments.
During the latest briefing on its operations, Quant Mutual Fund said that its portfolio strategy is currently tilted toward large and mega large-cap companies. The fund has even started putting to work some of the cash reserves that it had built up over the previous fiscal years into selective small-cap opportunities.
Pessimism for the first leg is at hand, with an equally ugly bottom awaiting formation; nonetheless, accumulation of U.S. equity in the short term seems probable. While the risk-off phase will continue for the U.S., the analytics survey appears to support risk-on for India and risk-off for the U.S. on both absolute and relative terms.
Currency & DXY Outlook
The fund keeps a close watch on global currency movements and yields, which are regarded as vital components of the economy’s macro nattering over 2025. After correcting from its January highs, the DXY is now looking to have found a bottom, with possibilities of a bullish reversal.
Conclusion
The perspectives shared by Quant Mutual Fund create a more intricate meaning of the current market scene. The near term, according to them, points to corrections across asset classes. In the long run, however, gold and Bitcoin along with a select few equities are looking positive. This phase, explains the fund, is consolidation and not outright bear market-meaning it is a critical time to invest, well informed and diversified.
