In recent times, the entity previously recognized as Twitter, denoted as X, has recently appraised its intrinsic worth at $19 billion, as revealed through confidential documents acquired by Fortune. This evaluation stands in stark contrast to the scenario one year ago when Elon Musk procured the microblogging platform for an approximate $44 billion, fetching a share price of $54.20. This remarkable transformation in valuation manifests as a remarkable 56% decrease in X’s value over the preceding twelve months.
Underlying Factors for the Plummeting Valuation
Numerous underlying factors underpin this substantial plummet in X’s valuation. The platform has been entangled in activities that have had a detrimental effect on its global brand recognition, involving the exclusion of journalists and facilitating impersonation. Nonetheless, it is imperative to acknowledge that company valuations are susceptible to influence from diverse elements, and a solitary numeral may not encapsulate the entire narrative.
Diverse Valuations: The Influence of Various Appraisers
Valuations can oscillate extensively, contingent upon the party executing the evaluation. Whether it be a venture capitalist, a governmental auditor, or a magnate akin to Elon Musk, their computations may yield notably disparate outcomes. As an example, Fidelity has diminished the worth of its investment in X by a substantial 65%.
Employee Incentives: Constrained Equity Units (CEUs)
X, which Elon Musk transformed into a privately-held entity following his acquisition, currently extends restricted equity units (CEUs) to its workforce, with a share price of $45. When private companies bestow compensation that emulates stocks, the IRS recommends the utilization of a 409A valuation, an independent adjudication of the company’s value. These assessments are inclined to exhibit a more cautious outlook in contrast to valuations arising from fresh venture financing, potentially leading to abatements in the appraised worth of a company.
Common Stock and Employee Benefits
Lower valuations under 409A appraisals can lead to the common stock, a type of equity compensation offered to employees, being priced at a discount. This is because, in the absence of an active liquid market for shares, the company can argue that common stock is worth less than the initial $44 billion price tag. This can be advantageous for employees, as they are likely to receive more stock or stock options with lower strike prices.
Implications of 409A Valuation
A 409A valuation sets the tax basis for stock options. At a $19 billion valuation, Twitter employees would pay less in taxes when exercising their options compared to a $40 billion valuation. While this may be beneficial for employees in the short term, the company will need to regain its lost value for its dedicated employees to eventually reap the benefits.
Conclusion: A Mixed Picture for X
In conclusion, X’s $19 billion valuation is indeed cause for concern, given the significant decline in its value. However, this might not be as alarming for the company’s workforce. The reduced valuation can make it more cost-effective to grant stock options to employees, potentially aiding talent recruitment. Nonetheless, X will need to regain its lost value to ensure its dedicated employees receive a substantial windfall in the long run.
