According to Sinopec, China’s Coal Consumption Will Peak Around 2025

China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, anticipates coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, according to an outlook provided on Thursday by the state energy giant.

Non-fossil energy production, driven by solar and wind, is expected to surpass the equivalent of 3 billion metric tons of conventional coal by 2045, becoming the main energy source for more than half of primary energy consumption, according to Sinopec’s 2060 forecast, which was unveiled in Beijing.

Oil consumption is estimated to peak in the middle of 2026-2030 at 800 million metric tons, or around 16 million barrels per day, thanks in part to faster-than-expected growth in the new energy vehicle sector, according to Sinopec.

China, the world’s second-largest oil user, is expected to consume 760 million tons of oil, or 15.2 million barrels per day, this year.

Sinopec also predicts that China’s demand for natural gas, a critical bridging fuel before attaining carbon neutrality, would peak around 2040 at 610 billion cubic meters (bcm), accounting for 13% of primary energy usage. This is compared to the estimated 425 bcm and 9% of primary energy usage by 2025.

China’s total carbon emissions from energy operations are predicted to peak at 10.1 billion metric tons during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, up from 10.02 billion tons in 2023.

According to a research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a think tank, and the NGO Global Energy Monitor (GEM), licenses for new coal power plants in China hit their highest level since 2015. Last year, local governments authorized licenses for 106GW of new coal-fired power capacity, signaling their determination to continue China’s drive toward higher coal output, seeming to operate in sync with the central government’s aims. 

According to the research, more than 50GW of coal generating capacity began or resumed construction in 2022, which is more than 50% higher than the previous year. The entire coal power capacity under development in China was six times that of the rest of the world combined. 

The overall capacity added to the grid by coal power in 2022 increased from 26.2GW to 26.8GW between the two years, although experts estimate an increase in a few years when the newly allowed power projects come online.