Source: The Economic Times
Oil prices may rise to $80 per barrel as tensions between the United States, Russia, and India increase.
Energy expert Narendra Taneja told ANI, “Russia exports 5 million barrels of oil into the global (oil) supply system every day. Crude oil prices would rise significantly – USD 100 to 120 per barrel, if not more – if the Russian oil is forced out of the global supply chains”.
The reason is growing pressure from the U.S. on countries like India that are buying oil from Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump could push oil prices even higher, as countries relying on Russian crude would have to choose between getting cheaper oil or facing high export tariffs from the US.
India imports a lot of oil from Russia, so these new rules could make it harder and more expensive to get oil.
Oil Prices Already Going Up
Experts say the global oil market is already feeling the pressure. According to NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura, “Brent Oil (Oct’25) from USD 72.07 has a short-term target of USD 76. Year-end 2025 could reach USD 80-82. Downside support and cap at USD 69. U.S. President Donald Trump has given Russia a deadline of 10-12 days to end the war in Ukraine, failing which it runs a risk of additional sanctions and secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on countries trading with Russia, which would push the oil prices higher.”
WTI crude oil (September 2025) is also rising. It currently trades around $69.65, with a short-term target of $73, and may go up to $76–79 by year-end.
Russian Oil is Important
Energy expert Narendra Taneja said
“Russia exports 5 million barrels of oil into the global (oil) supply system every day. Crude oil prices would rise significantly – USD 100 to 120 per barrel, if not more, if Russian oil is forced out of the global supply chains”.
He further said, “If Russian oil stops flowing into Indian refineries, prices would rise globally for sure. There would be no shortage of oil in India because our refiners import from 40 different countries, but balancing the price for consumers would be a challenge.”
Other Factors to Watch
Even if countries like Saudi Arabia and others in OPEC try to increase production, it won’t happen quickly. This could lead to a short-term shortage and more price rises.
Some positive news includes a recent U.S.-EU trade deal and a U.S.-China truce, which are helping the market a little. But rising tensions and the strong U.S. dollar are keeping oil prices under pressure.
